Sunday, November 04, 2012

Anti Gay Marriage Amendment Losing 52-45 In MN

More good blue state news. Both the marriage amendment and the voter ID amendment in Minnesota appear to be headed for a sound defeat:

 ..45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to 52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51% who are opposed.. The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 41/55. 

The reason the voter ID amendment now appears to be in serious trouble is that Democrats (82%) are just as opposed to it as Republicans (82%) are supportive of it. We've found Republicans strongly supportive of the concept all year, but Democrats have moved sharply against it from 36% support in June to now just 14%. And independents have shifted over the last five months from being very much in favor (58/35) to evenly divided (49/49).