Monday, October 16, 2006

Ending the GOP As a National Party

Let's not stop with merely a win. According to Chris Bowers over at MyDD, "If all goes well in the northeast this year, Republicans will have ceased to be a national party."

Now that's the kind of payback I can get excited about.

I wanted to give a little more perspective to the electoral situation in New York. The congressional delegation here is already 20-9 in favor of Democrats, but at least seven of the Republican-held seats are in serious jeopardy. It is entirely possible, if not likely, that when this election is over the delegation will be something like 24-5, or even an absurd 26-3. Couple this with blowout, 65%+ wins in the Senate and Governor's campaigns here, and Republicans are on the verge of being entirely run out of the state.

With a thorough northeast blowout, the 2006 elections could end Republicans as a national party. Hell, Republicans might be reduced to about five House seats in all of New England and New York combined. Democrats still have a presence in red states like Texas--Republicans are on the brink of not having one in the northeast.

The Wall Street Journal also has an encouraging piece about the perils facing the GOP. Jeanne Cummings concludes that there are so very many vulnerable GOP seats that great gobs of money may not be enough to keep the House and the Senate in the hands of the Dark Side.

Republicans have increasingly concentrated on three Senate seats -- Tennessee, Missouri and Ohio -- to try to salvage at least a one-seat majority. They currently hold 55 of the Senate's 100 seats, but at least six of those are now seen as vulnerable. The party's national and Senate campaign accounts have recently spent $14.1 million to hold the seats of retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, Missouri Sen. Jim Talent and Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine -- with $8 million spent on Mr. DeWine alone. Yet most polls show Democrats still leading in all three races.

Meanwhile, many Republican national strategists now expect to lose their House majority, as the number of endangered seats has recently risen and Democrats have been able to hold a bigger portion of their cash back for a late push.

To keep control of the House, Republicans have to limit their net losses at 14 seats. To keep control of the Senate, they can't drop more than five. But, as the election nears, they are being forced to defend an ever-widening field.

Since the Foley furor, the number of House Republican seats in play has moved from 36 to 43, according to Amy Walter, of the Cook Political Report. The number of Democrats in some peril is unchanged at nine.

Update -- The NY Times: Republicans are cutting their losses, giving up on Ohio!

Related post: Republican Meltdown