Monday, April 09, 2007

Hillary and the Coming Gender War


The women's vote has never been monolithic, but the degree of support that Hillary Clinton has from Democratic and Independent women -- if we believe the polls -- suggests that the 2008 presidential race may well erupt into a serious gender war.

Women are the majority of voters. If women continue to support Hillary Clinton in the 2008 race to the degree cited below, women may well be responsible for sending Hillary Clinton to the White House as the first woman president.

LA Times:

Armed with mounting evidence that women are providing her a strong foundation in the crucial early months of the run-up to next year's primaries, Clinton's campaign is trying to organize almost every aspect of the Democratic women's voting bloc -- including lining up the support of feminist elites and stoking excitement in teenage political neophytes. . .

In contrast to the broader electorate, where, in 2006, women accounted for 51% of votes cast, women represent as much as 60% of registered voters in early Democratic primary and caucus states. And early surveys show Clinton ahead of her male rivals among women in every early primary and caucus state.

Nationally, a Zogby survey in late March found that Clinton outstripped her competitors, leading with 42% of likely primary voters among Democratic women, compared with 19% for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and 15% for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Clinton held a much thinner lead among male Democratic voters. At 28%, she barely edged Obama, who was at 26%, with Edwards trailing at 11%. . .

She shows strength among independent women as well. A Gallup survey released Monday showed that nationally, 59% of female independent voters have a favorable image of Clinton — compared with 45% of male independents. . .

"The women's vote is not monolithic," said Kate Michelman, former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, the abortion rights group, who is backing Edwards. . . But Michelman concedes that Clinton is quickly locking up the top echelon of women's movement leaders. The support of women's political groups such as EMILY's List and NOW means more than bragging rights.