The national media has pretty well pegged this state as ultra conservative, or reliably red. I've heard it so many times that I almost believe it. Thank you, Chris Matthews! But the only thing constant about this state is that it changes.
In 1992 and 1996, Tennessee went with Clinton. In those years, the local newspaper looked as blue as it now looks red. The state has a long tradition of going with the nation, or the winner, in presidential elections. In other words, if the Dems keep on doing what they're doing (and somebody tells James Carville to shut up), Tennessee will go blue in 2008.
In this week's column, Larry Daughtrey - the Tennessean's only real political columnist - predicts just that:
One of the newer myths surrounding Tennessee's political character is that it, like the rest of the old Confederacy, has become a reliably red state dominated by the Republicans. That is largely based on President Bush's wins here in 2000 and 2004. If Bush had been on the ballot here last week, he would have lost.
That means Tennessee is very much in play for the 2008 presidential election. Those who write it off and fly over, as John Kerry did in 2004, are making a mistake.
The proof of that is Ford's 48 percent of the vote, coming in the face of his race, his scandal-scarred family, and a multimillion-dollar holding effort by the national Republican Party.
There are signs of some new trends. In the past, the state's larger cities have voted their regional patterns.
This year, Knoxville and Chattanooga were less Republican than normal; Nashville and Memphis more Democratic than usual. Rural counties in Middle Tennessee, once Democratic by tradition, are becoming more competitive.
So here's a prediction for 2008: Voters will rise up and do something different.
2008 Politics News Tennessee Democrats Red State Blue State Larry Daughtrey Harold Ford
