Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Big Blue Tsunami Watch

A Final Look at Polls and Predictions for a Big Blue Democratic Sweep

I'll be sitting here blogging all day and all night just watching the Big Blue Democratic Tsunami roll in. I'll be breaking out the bubbly the minute I know that the rightwing nightmare and my own personal longtime liberal fantasy of Speaker Pelosi has begun to come true! After that, I don't even need anything for Christmas (unless it's the Senate).

I haven't included any polls or predictions on Harold Ford because the polls are all over the place -- it can go either way. The racist attacks on Harold Ford may well cause a big backlash. If you haven't voted yet, I hope you will vote for Ford. If you need a reason to vote for him -- other than the critical need to bring down the nightmare One Party Rule in this alleged democracy -- R. Neal over at KnoxViews has some reasons, including a list of progressive legislation sponsored by Ford, no kidding.

Democrats need 15 seats to take back the House and 6 seats to own the Senate.

The Cook Political Report:

Going into Election Day, we see a 20-35 seat gain for Democrats in the House, a four to six seat gain for Democrats in the Senate and a six to eight seat gain for Democrats in the governor's races. . . . Seven national polls have been conducted since Wednesday, November 1. They give Democrats an average lead of 11.6 percentage points, larger than any party has had going into an Election Day in memory. Even if you knock five points off of it, it's 6.6 percentage points, bigger than the advantage that Republicans had going into 1994.

Rothenberg Political Report:

Democratic gain of 30-36 seats in the House and 4-7 seats in the Senate.

CNN Poll:

Democrats hold a 20 percentage-point advantage -- 58 percent to 38 percent -- over Republicans among likely voters in the survey released Monday morning. The Democratic advantage was 11 percentage points -- 53 percent to 42 percent -- in a poll a week ago. . . . In the so-called "poll of polls," which averages the results of five national surveys, Democrats have a 53 percent to 41 percent margin over Republicans.


The latest polls portend disaster for the Republican Party tomorrow. The House appears to be gone; the Senate is teetering on the brink. John Zogby's polling is tracking 15 swing House districts, and he finds Democratic leads in 13. Since Dems need only 15 to take control - and will doubtless pick up several not on Zogby's list - it seems we're in for several years of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

FOX News Poll - Dems Top GOP by 13 Points in Race to Control Congress:

By a 13-percentage point margin, more voters think most Democrats in Congress deserve to be re-elected (46 percent) than think most Republicans deserve re-election (33 percent). Furthermore, a 52-percent majority of voters says most Republicans in Congress do not deserve re-election, including 33 percent of self-identified Republicans.

Novak [Bob] Political Report:

Democrats are set to gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and five governorships in tomorrow's elections. It is a sign of Republicans' sorry state that, at this point, this is actually a very favorable outlook for them.

Survey USA:

Democrat Jim Webb has surged ahead of Republican George Allen in the last poll of the campaign, conducted for News-7 by SurveyUSA. The survey shows Webb with 52% of the likely voters, with 44% going to Allen.